Seventeen years ago, a warm wind was blowing across the pacific. As it blew, it pushed some warmed waters westwards, piling them high to the north east of Australia. When the winds eased, the warm waters washed back across the vast ocean releasing masses of heat into the atmosphere in what became the mother of all El Niño events. It was 1998 and the climate seemed set on a frightening trajectory. But the years that followed didn't live up to predictions, leading to a crisis of...