“Feel it, it is here!” This slogan somewhat incredulously reminds us that South Africa hosted the 2011 World Cup. A year on, the slogan still resonates in our conversations.
However, another catchphrase, the “ticking time bomb,” has emerged to underscore the strong possibility of a youth uprising in the future.
The recognition that South Africa faces a significant challenge, especially with respect to including young, unemployed, African males in our economy, marks an important acknowledgment of the challenge facing our society. Yet the metaphor of the “ticking time bomb” suggests some distant future for a popular uprising when in fact, appropriating the World Cup slogan, “Feel it, it is here!” would be more appropriate.
The metaphor of a “ticking time bomb” has gained support, as young activists in North Africa and the Middle East have toppled governments in what is called the “Arab Spring.” Moeletsi Mbeki has popularised the idea arguing that South Africa is facing the possibility of greater social upheaval due to high levels of youth unemployment. In fact, according to Statistics South Africa, 72% of the unemployed are between the ages of 15-34 years old.
The COSATU General-Secretary, Zwelinzima Vavi, further elaborated upon this theme at a recent lecture on an “employment guarantee” in South Africa, warning again of the prospect of an uprising, if the challenges facing young people are not addressed quickly.
It is a theme that has routinely featured in COSATU's documents over the last decade, even if many were not willing to pay heed. Vavi, however, provided an organisers perspective, arguing that Johannesburg is surrounded by a “ring of fire.”
Spatially speaking, service delivery protests are concentrated in poorer communities and especially in informal settlements, which are located on the periphery of cities. Plotting protests on a map does give the impression of a ring of fire. The metaphor however suggests something more: that coordinating these service delivery protests is spatially possible and enhanced with technological advancements, such as cell phones.
On the other end of the ideological spectrum, the Centre for Development and Enterprise produced an important research paper in 2006, which traced the histories of 1000 young people, and later argued that current interventions, by both government and business, are not addressing the problem. Importantly, there is even in the business community, an important and early recognition of the problem, even if the policy options proposed by business are open to debate.
The National Planning Commission adopts a more national perspective and reports in its diagnostic report that if a young person does not get a job by age 24, they are likely never to get a job. The NPC then amplifies this by saying that “about 60 percent of an entire generation could live their lives without ever holding a formal job. This time bomb is the greatest risk to social stability in South Africa.”
The African National Congress Youth League (ANCYL), at its recent congress, agreed to pursue a programme for economic transformation, which it calls the “7 cardinal pillars.” The programme includes nationalisation and expropriation without compensation.
The radical rhetoric emerging from the ANCYL can be understood in the context of a growing recognition that the exclusion of youth is our biggest challenge. Thus far, the ANCYL has provided a radical expression for the views of youth, but as several political commentators argue, they play another useful function: that of containing anger.
However, there is a disconnect between protesting communities and the African National Congress -- leadership of young, unemployed youth will have to be constructed on the ground, rather than be proclaimed from Congress podiums.
The space for more ambitious programmes of transformation has thus been improved with the growing consensus that we face an uncertain future if youth unemployment remains at current levels. This is an encouraging development, as changes are clearly needed to address the problem of youth unemployment. In answering this policy question, there are two important policy directions that must be emphasised.
First, that the challenge is not simply about tweaking incentives, but rather that providing work to the current generation of unemployed youth will require wider interventions.
One possibility is to scale-up the Community Works Programme (CWP), which provides community based work opportunities with regular transfers of income by government. Other possibilities exist in the areas of increasing public service employment, or in undertaking a mass-retraining programme.
The exactness of the policy package has however been debated for the last decade with government and its social partners failing dismally to lend coherence to the problem. In important senses, the spadework for a wider intervention has been completed, but the leaders in our society have failed to create consensus and allocate resources to a programme to tackle the challenges.
Importantly, the disconnect between leaders and disillusioned youth was a precursor not only to the Arab spring, but in South Africa’s liberation struggle too.
Second, policy must not only address the fears of the middle and upper classes, but far more importantly, express the hopes of young unemployed people.
Current proposals in public policy propose social safety nets, gaining initial work experience in the public sector and even a subsidy to enter the workforce. These are important policy proposals that need to be quickly decided upon as a class of policies, which could be called “social stabilizers.”
However, in building the South African dream, transforming the economy will need to consider the importance of creating an entity that provides a fair chance for anyone to participate in it and attain their dreams. The idealism in such an approach requires dealing with the hard features of our economy, which in its current form has a default position that supports larger firms and current incumbents.
Certainly, structural changes to the economy will take time, but even the most ambitious programme of social stabilisation will only attain sustainable results as part of a broader programme of economic restructuring.
South Africa is thus at a crucial point where the social conditions for a stronger push towards addressing inequality - because of the reality of exclusion - are becoming more apparent to those who are part of the economy.
However, the metaphor of a “ticking time bomb” may lull us into a false sense of security. Look around, listen and you might just recognise that an uprising is not a distant reality. Current protest action may be small and uncoordinated, but it is happening – “Feel it, it is here!”
A Few Ideas
@ Nazeer - thanks for a thoughtful set of comments, with an ambitious policy agenda. I am in agreement that the focus must be on how public resources can support economic activity, and that effective interventions will require making markets more accessible to all.
Apologies for the delayed response - just back from holidays.
A Few Ideas...
It seems to me that it would be good for the government to support and protect infant industries in SA. The manufacturing sector is the only sector which may create jobs at the scale that is required. This means raising tariffs to avoid our country being flooded with cheap imported goods. Buying local has proved a failure in the face of cheap imports. The entry of Walmart is a step in the wrong direction.
Local industries are importing components and goods, which they were previously producing locally. This will boost our export earnings too.
And what about government supporting the development of new local industries; creating green jobs through a public-private partnership to build and export electric cars for example the taxpayer has already forked out millions for research and development. Letís take the next step and create a new industry. If we can spend R80 billion on a feel good world cup event (with no tangible long term outcomes) surely investing in new industries will bring long term benefits to the country in employment in the factory and along the supply chain. This is how Samsung was born in Korea.
Another way to create new jobs and creating economic activity is to break the stranglehold of the large corporates who have been guilty of colluding in price fixing and uncompetitive behaviour. The bread industry is a good example. We should be having thousands of small bakeries instead of a few big companies leaving a large carbon footprint and producing tasteless mass produced bread. There are more bread delivery trucks on SA roads than there are bakeries producing local breads. A fine is not enough to dissuade uncompetitive behaviour. The costs are simply passed on to the consumer!
@ willemus - thanks for asking the really demanding question. unfortunately, there are no easy answers on these questions. i know a couple of people working on this, and hopefully something is proposed soon. my view is that the government's education system has major challenges, and needs significant improvements.
(On holiday, so will respond less frequently than normal to comments).
@ affirmatively challenged white man - if you can substantiate your comment it could be an interesting discussion to have. But, i suspect you are just fishing.
Education...or the Lack of It
"Other possibilities exist in the areas of ... undertaking a mass-retraining programme."
Question: What kind of training and, more importantly, by whom,?
And another more pertinent question: Would that not be a tacit admission that the government education system has failed. How is it that after twelve years of government schooling a product emerges with insufficient skills to make a decent living? Why, after twelve years can they not do basic things such as read and write properly, touch type or drive a motor vehicle?
Unemployment in South Africa: Feel It, the Ticking Time Bomb
Unemployment will vanish only when the DA rules this country.
RESPOND TO DA COMMENT
DA will never rule this country. DA want to bring back inequalities of the past. No way